Happy Holidays! It has been an eventful year for Ontario's energy sector. With growing demand, new resource procurements, the release of a highly anticipated expert panel report, a government vision document, two major pieces of legislation, and a wave of new policies, consultations, and regulatory decisions, have brought significant change to energy regulation and policy.
As the year winds down, we’re excited to share the key themes and regulatory developments that, in our view, shaped 2024 in this special Year in Review edition of the Shepherd Rubenstein Energy Regulatory Update.
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Increasing Demand
Almost all the key themes discussed below are fundamentally driven by the forecast increase in electricity demand in Ontario, spurred by electrification, population growth, and commercial load expansion.
In April, the IESO released its 2024 Annual Planning Outlook (APO), forecasting electricity demand to grow by approximately 2% annually, culminating in a 60% increase by 2050. The 2024 APO also indicated a shift from summer-peaking to dual-peaking by 2030, alongside a growing capacity deficit expected to reach approximately 23 GW by 2050.
Those forecasts were revised in October when the IESO released updated forecasts as part of its upcoming 2025 APO. The IESO now forecasts electricity demand will grow by 2.2% annually, resulting in a 75% increase by 2050. Medium-term peak capacity projections were also adjusted upward, with summer and winter peaks increasing by 700 MW and 900 MW, respectively. By 2025, peak demand is expected to rise by 50–60% compared to previous forecasts for the same year. The IESO attributes these upward revisions to increased electrification in the commercial sector, growth in data centers, and the expansion of EV production and supply chains.